aat Acta Astrophys. Tau. Acta Astrophysica Taurica 2712-925X Kiselev Nikolai Nikolaevich, Mosсow, settlement Moskovskii, Tat'yanin Park Str., 12, Moscow, Russia. RU 95 Magnetism and activity of the Sun and stars – 2021 Conference proceedings Space weather prediction: forthcoming turbulent years? Vladimirskii Boris V.I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University, Simferopol 295007 24 12 2024 5 4 5 10 13 12 2024 Copyright (c) 2024 Boris Vladimirskii 2024 Boris Vladimirskii The metadata for this submission is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Copyright and publishing rights for texts published in Acta Astrophysica Taurica is retained by the authors, with first publication rights granted to the journal.Texts are free to use with proper attribution and link to the licensing (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International).

Based on the analysis of historical and statistical data for the period between 12th and 19th centuries, it was established that a risk of social instability episodes (riots, revolutions) increases at the decay phase of even and at the rise phase of odd 11-year cycles of solar activity. The probability of large-scale armed conflicts increases with approaching the maximum of Kondratiev’s long-wave cycle (about 55 years). If these patterns are implemented in some regions, then the most turbulent year will be 2024 ± 1. Immediately after the forthcoming 11-year solar activity maximum, around the year 2026, the global temperature is expected to start decreasing. The extreme value, about 0.3°, will have been achieved by approximately the year 2035. By the end of the century, the temperature is expected to restore.

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