Space weather prediction: forthcoming turbulent years?
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Abstract
Based on the analysis of historical and statistical data for the period between 12th and 19th centuries, it was established that a risk of social instability episodes (riots, revolutions) increases at the decay phase of even and at the rise phase of odd 11-year cycles of solar activity. The probability of large-scale armed conflicts increases with approaching the maximum of Kondratiev’s long-wave cycle (about 55 years). If these patterns are implemented in some regions, then the most turbulent year will be 2024 ± 1. Immediately after the forthcoming 11-year solar activity maximum, around the year 2026, the global temperature is expected to start decreasing. The extreme value, about 0.3°, will have been achieved by approximately the year 2035. By the end of the century, the temperature is expected to restore.
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